Peace Plans Set to be Presented to Russia Within Days, States Ukraine's President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.