Aerial Devices from Belarus Trigger Disruption in Lithuania. Criminal Networks or a Hybrid Attack?

Each time the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects disruptions.

That is when large aerial objects are sent across the border, with crates of illicit tobacco hanging beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's main airport into shutdown 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the officials are adamant they are facing something far more hostile than simple smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been "weaponised" in an example of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian administration has declared an state of emergency.

While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Of course it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus exploits organised crime to impact bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official suggested the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to make a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern flank.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, nightly, border units head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.

Patrols set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any firm that can develop how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also serve as a deterrent.

Political Objectives

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting sanctions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines face disruptions.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."